Time to face reality

If I were a Democrat politician today I would not be so much unhappy about Tuesday as terrified of 2012.

Look at the math.

The Democrats have a significant minority position in the House, far worse than they were in 1995. To recover that is going to take some time barring an electoral miracle. That means that it is likely in 2013 they are going to be the minority party in the House.

In the Senate their prospects do not look good in 2012. There are 10 Republican seats that will be up for re-election. There are going to be 21 Democrat seats up. The odds favor a Republican majority in the Senate in 2013 simply on the basis of the numbers.

And here is the kicker for them. Obama is seriously unpopular. If he cannot turn his numbers around he faces the prospect of some major challengers in the Democratic primaries and no matter who gets nominated, that person is going to be playing catch up against the Republican candidate. As of this writing, it looks like the Republicans will be able run Lenin’s dog and win. Of course that can change.

So the best the Democrats seem to be able to get out of 2012 is gridlock, a Democrat President and a Republican Congress. Their worst case scenario is another blowout with the Republicans having the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, with a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

Anyway, that is how it looks today.


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